Pipeline Bypass Capacity
Can existing pipelines replace the Strait of Hormuz? (Spoiler: they can't)
The 13 Million Barrel Gap
The combined capacity of all bypass pipelines covers just 35% of normal Hormuz flow. The remaining 65% has no alternative route.
Saudi East-West (Petroline)
Max CapacityUAE ADCOP Pipeline
DisruptedIraq-Turkey Pipeline
LimitedCritical: 13M bbl/day Cannot Be Rerouted
Even with all three pipelines running at maximum capacity, approximately 13 million barrels per day of crude oil — representing 65% of normal Hormuz throughput — has no alternative route to market. This includes virtually all of Kuwait's and Iraq's southern exports, Qatar's LNG (which cannot be transported by pipeline at all), and the majority of Saudi and UAE production. The only alternative for this oil is the 12-14 day detour around the Cape of Good Hope, at an additional cost of $500,000-$700,000 per vessel.
The LNG Pipeline Gap
While crude oil has limited pipeline bypass options, Liquefied Natural Gas has zero pipeline alternatives. Qatar, the world's largest LNG exporter at 77 million tonnes per year, ships all of its gas via LNG carriers through the Strait of Hormuz. There are no pipelines capable of transporting LNG around the strait — the gas must be liquefied at origin, shipped as a cryogenic liquid at -162°C, and regasified at the destination terminal.
This means that Qatar's 25% share of global LNG trade is entirely dependent on the strait remaining open. The force majeure declared by QatarEnergy LNG has removed approximately 8.5 million tonnes of monthly LNG supply from the market, driving TTF gas prices from €28.50/MWh to over €80/MWh. For LNG-importing nations like Japan (which sources 40% of its LNG from Qatar), South Korea, and India, there is no pipeline alternative — only expensive spot market purchases from the US, Australia, or East Africa, assuming available shipping capacity.