Alternative Routes & Pipelines
Bypass options for shipping affected by the Hormuz closure
Reroute Cost Calculator
Historical Comparison
| Crisis | Duration | Peak Oil Spike | Trade Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hormuz 2026 | 88+ days | +56% | 21% world oil |
| OPEC Embargo 1973 | 5 months | +400% | 7M bbl/day cut |
| Tanker War 1984-88 | 4 years | +30% | Reduced traffic |
| Kuwait Invasion 1990 | 6 months | +100% | 4.3M bbl/day lost |
| Suez Blockage 2021 | 6 days | +5% | $60B trade delayed |
| Red Sea 2024-25 | 12+ months | +8% | 12% traffic rerouted |
Route Comparison
| Route | Normal Days | Cape Days | Extra Days | Extra Cost | Status |
|---|
Pipeline Bypass Capacity
East-West Pipeline
Max CapacitySaudi Aramco's Petroline runs from the Eastern Province to the Red Sea terminal at Yanbu. At 5M bbl/day capacity, it's the largest bypass option but still far short of the 17M bbl/day normally shipped through Hormuz.
UAE ADCOP Pipeline
Max CapacityAbu Dhabi's pipeline from Habshan to Fujairah bypasses the Strait entirely, delivering crude directly to the Gulf of Oman. At 1.5M bbl/day, it handles a fraction of UAE's total exports but is operationally critical.
Iraq-Turkey Pipeline
LimitedThe Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline runs from northern Iraq to the Turkish Mediterranean coast. At just 0.5M bbl/day and subject to political disputes between Baghdad and Erbil, its contribution remains marginal.
The Pipeline Gap Problem
The combined capacity of all three bypass pipelines totals just 7 million barrels per day — roughly 35% of the 20 million barrels per day that normally flow through the Strait of Hormuz. This 13 million barrel per day gap is the central problem of the current crisis. No combination of existing pipelines can replace the sheer volume of seaborne crude that transits the strait, and building new pipeline capacity takes years, not weeks.
The Cape of Good Hope route adds 12-14 days to a typical voyage and approximately $500,000-$700,000 in additional costs per vessel. For the global economy, this translates to a daily surcharge measured in billions of dollars. The rerouting has also created a vessel shortage crisis, as ships tied up on longer routes cannot make their scheduled returns, leaving ports from Singapore to Rotterdam with empty container yards and delayed cargoes. The situation underscores a fundamental vulnerability in global energy infrastructure: the world's most critical oil chokepoint has no adequate backup plan.