China

HIGH

Oil Import Dependency

40%

LNG Import Dependency

28%

Situation Overview

China has diversified oil sources but remains the largest Gulf crude importer by volume, with 40% still transiting Hormuz. The ESPO pipeline from Russia and overland Central Asian routes provide partial mitigation, but the sheer volume of China's energy demand means that even a 40% disruption creates a massive supply gap. China's strategic petroleum reserves provide approximately 50 days of coverage, and Beijing has been aggressively filling storage when prices dip.

Economic Impact

$380B exposure to the Hormuz disruption. China has leveraged its relationship with both Iran and Russia to partially offset the supply gap, with Russian crude imports via pipeline and rail increasing significantly. However, the loss of Gulf LNG and the increased cost of seaborne crude continue to weigh on the economy. Beijing's mediation efforts in the crisis are driven as much by self-interest as by diplomacy.

Key Facts

Largest Gulf crude importer by volume
40% via Hormuz
Russian pipeline alternatives (ESPO)
50-day SPR coverage
Active diplomatic mediator
Russian oil imports up significantly