European Union

MODERATE

Oil Import Dependency

14%

LNG Import Dependency

18%

Situation Overview

The EU has limited direct Hormuz exposure for crude oil (14%), but faces severe LNG supply disruption affecting its energy transition plans. European nations had been rapidly increasing LNG imports to replace Russian pipeline gas, with Qatar as a primary supplier. The Hormuz closure has disrupted this strategy, pushing TTF gas prices up 51% and forcing some member states to reconsider coal and nuclear energy policies.

Economic Impact

$180B impact primarily via LNG and secondary price effects. TTF gas prices have surged 51% from pre-crisis levels, hitting industrial production in Germany and Italy particularly hard. The EU has activated emergency gas storage protocols and is seeking increased supply from the US, Norway, and North Africa. Industrial production across the eurozone has declined 4.2% year-over-year.

Key Facts

14% crude via Hormuz
Major LNG impact from Qatar disruption
TTF gas prices +51%
Industrial output declining
Emergency gas storage activated
Coal/nuclear reconsideration